Gold bullion and certified gold coins both fell to 3-week lows on Friday, capping a week in which the gold spot price climbed to $1330 before retreating below the key technical support level of $1300 per ounce. At one point this morning gold reached a daily low of $1282.40 before making a slight rebound.
PCGS gold coins outperformed gold bullion for the last few weeks after a pair of months when the certified gold coin market trepidly waited for gold bullion to find support at any level whatsoever.
Today’s U.S. jobs market report showed that about 204,000 jobs were created last month, and this boosted the dollar index which in turn provided a catalyst for the gold spot price to fall. Analysts have called it good, bad and simply different but the fact that gold bullion prices are more volatile than those of certified gold coins is unquestionable.
For most of the last 12 years PCGS and NGC were the coins to own. Then, premiums shrunk and bullion became a plausible idea, even though confiscation could be just around the corner. Gold bullion is down 26% in the last 365 days, and some investment-grade PCGS and NGC gold coins have fared worse.
Now, premiums on some certified gold coins are as low as 10% over the gold bullion spot price, compared to as much as 124% over in the last decade. Most investors know that certified gold is for long-term growth while bullion and derivatives are for speculation, but with projections for gold to reach $1500 by the middle of next year and premiums on certified pre-1933 coins trending up keep an eye out for the market to change drastically over the next 7-10 months.